Friday, October 26, 2012

Our continued look at the Mariners position by position. Today: 
First Base

Justin Smoak:
By now we all know about how Smoak changed his swing and had a very good September. He needed to shorten his swing and he did just that. One way he did it was by using a shorter leg kick. What I mean by that is he lifted and put his front foot on the ground faster than before. Even to the point of not taking a stride at all. The other way he shortened his swing is by now holding onto the bat with both hands on his follow through. Before, he would let go of the bat with one hand on the follow through.

I was one of the many who thought Smoak was never going to make it and I had seen enough. Even from his days in the minor leagues there were whispers of a hole in his swing that may never be fixed. Let’s hope he has finally fixed that hole in his swing. I have to admit that I am cautiously dinking the Kool-Aid on Smoak. I would still trade him if I think it would help the team but I am also ready to give him another chance next spring to prove he has finally turned the corner with his hitting.


Jesus Montero:

I would like to start off by saying I thought Montero had a pretty good first year all things considered. Did he do as much as I thought he was going to do? No. But if you take a step back and consider he was a 22 year old rookie trying to find his way in the big leagues at the same time trying to learn the catching position. He did ok. This is a difficult position in of itself.
But in my opinion, his catching days should be over now. With Zunino set to arrive sometimes next year, it is a waste of Montero’s time and his development using him behind the plate. The Mariners are going to sign another catcher this offseason anyway. It’s time to get a first baseman’s glove on him now and have him come to spring training ready to compete with Smoak at first base. The only way I would use him at catcher again would be in emergency situations or on the occasions there are double moves late in games.
 
As a hitter this year Montero struggled mightily against breaking pitches away especially sliders. He must improve his pitch recognition if he is to become the hitter we all hope he will become.
In my opinion I think Montero needs to alter his swing like Smoak did. But with one big difference. Instead of holding onto the bat with two hands on the follow through I think Montero needs to let go with one hand on his follow through. I always thought Montero had a funky swing that isn’t really a power stroke. He is kind of a flicker with his bat as he makes contact and follows through. He had way too many weak ground balls in the infield and lazy fly balls. I realize a lot of that was due to rolling over on outside sliders but I think too he needs to generate more back spin on the ball. Back spin makes the ball go farther.  One way to get back spin is by letting go of the bat with one hand which keeps you down through the ball more. Thus generating more back spin on the ball. I have seen Montero use this technique on inside pitches before; even hitting a home run which got me thinking he should use this stroke all the time. As far as I can see, Montero does not have a long swing. He doesn’t need to shorten it; he just needs to refine it.

One last thing on Montero. I think he needs to have much more focus at the plate. Too many times this year I saw him in the on deck circle or walking up to the plate gesturing or looking towards the opponents’ dugout. And it wasn’t with an “I am going to crush this pitcher” look. It was more of a “How are you guys doing” look. He needs more focus and that starts with when he is on deck. And especially when he is in the batter’s Box.   

So, in short I think the Mariners should take a page out of Pete Carroll’s book and have both Smoak and Montero compete for the first base job next spring.  If they both do well at first then you have a good first base/DH combo. Not to mention a potential trade opportunity. If one has a bad spring you can send him down to AAA. So either way you are covered. Not to mention Ackley’s availability late in games in case of pinch hitting or defensive replacements.  
          


Wednesday, October 24, 2012

With the offseason now under way for the Seattle Mariners I would like to go over the roster, position by position and what I think they should do at each position starting with catcher.

John Jaso:

I think we can all agree that Jaso had a very nice season even if it was unexpected. He came to the Mariners in a nondescript trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Josh Lueke. I thought it was a nice trade at the time because we needed a backup catcher and I have always felt the backup catcher should be a left handed hitter if the starter bats right. Tom Lampkin had a 15 year career as a left handed hitting backup catcher despite being just a career .235 hitter with average defensive skills.

Jaso was by far our most clutch hitter and did a decent job behind the plate. I was surprised it took the Mariners so long to figure out that he was the best catcher for Felix Hernandez because Olivo and Montero had such a difficult time catching Felix’s pitches because they moved so much. I also think Jaso called a good game for the pitching staff as a whole. With that being said though, I think Jaso is best suited as platoon catcher. I think the Mariners gave Jaso just about the right amount of at bats to take advantage of his skill set but with one caveat. With Olivo’s struggles at the plate and Montero getting the bulk of his at bats as DH, It can be reasonably argued that Jaso should have gotten even more at bats. But in an ideal situation, with a legitimate starting catcher (let’s hope Mike Zunino fits that bill soon)  Jaso is best suited as a backup catcher and pinch hitter.

I think the Mariners will and should resign Jaso. Even to a multiyear contract because he still will be a valuable part of the Mariners even after Zunino ultimately takes over as the starting catcher. But for now he should be the main catcher but in a platoon type of situation.


Jesus Montero:

For a 22 year old in his first major league season trying to catch and hit in the middle of a line up, I think Montero did a respectable job.  But if it were up to me that job would be done for him. Unless the Mariners already know he can’t play first then his catching days should be over. I would move him to first base immediately and have him play some winter ball. More on Montero in the upcoming first base breakdown.

Free Agent Catcher:

I would sign the best defensive free agent catcher I could find at a reasonable price. I really believe Zunino will be up sometime next year so we only need a stop gap at catcher. With Jaso and Montero, if they choose to keep him at catcher are below average catchers so a good defensive catcher would be beneficial.    





Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Cecil’s Corner – Seattle Mariners

Welcome to a new Seattle Mariners blog called Cecil’s Corner- Seattle Mariners.  I am part old school and part new school when it comes to evaluating players and building teams. I am the first one to admit I am no expert on all the sabermetric calculations but I am aware of many of them. Thus I do believe in using both the scouting eye and sabermetrics when evaluating baseball players. With that said, I invite everyone to join me in discussing Seattle Mariners baseball. 
With the playoffs in full swing, I would like to start this blog by giving my opinion on the basic philosophy on how to build a contending baseball team. This can be difficult because I think a successful team during the regular season may not necessarily equate to playoff success. The best example of this is the 2001 Seattle Mariners. While we all enjoyed that record tying season, I remember cautioning my friends that those Mariners were not going to go far in the playoffs. Everyone thought I was crazy! Throughout that year I frequently used the phrase “The Mariners are built for the marathon but not the sprint” What I meant by that was that they had a great regular season roster but not a strong playoff roster. In my opinion a strong playoff roster consist of 2 strong front of the rotation starting pitchers, a strong bullpen and a couple hot hitters who pop some home runs in the playoffs.
The 2001 Mariners had an effective regular season starting pitching staff led by Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer but not the 2 horses you need to make a deep run in the playoffs. They did however have a strong bullpen and some power (although many teams had power in the steroid era). I believe you win with pitching and power in the playoffs. The pitching is just too good to play small ball and try and string together 4 or 5 hits in a row to score runs. So many playoff games are won with a 2 or 3 run home run or a couple home runs hit throughout the game. You have to take advantage of the 2 or 3 mistakes that a pitcher will make during a playoff game. If you miss those chances the odds are you are going to lose the game.   
In contrast, the 2001 Arizona Diamond Backs had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling at the front of their rotation, a good bullpen and timely big hits. The 2004 Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling leading their staff, a good bullpen and power hitters. The 2010 Giants had a staff lead by Tim Lincicum and Matt Cain, a good bullpen and timely homeruns by late season pickups Pat Burrell and Cody Ross among others. Those are some examples of the kind of horses you need at the front of your rotation to win in the playoffs. I am sure there are examples of teams over the last 100 years that had won a world series another way but again this is just my opinion.
Which leads me to how the Mariners have been constructed the last many years and what they should do moving forward which will be discussed in upcoming posts.