Friday, November 30, 2012

Hot Topic Break: Seattle Mariners General Manager


General Manager: Jack Zduriencik

Since the baseball winter meetings are starting Monday I would like to detour from my position by position look at the Seattle Mariners and talk about Jack Zduriencik. There was a good article written on him by Jason Churchill the other day and I would like to follow up with a few things as well.

I don’t need to rehash all of his trades and free agent signings. They are all well documented. Some worked and some didn’t. For this post I would like to focus more on what kind of job it is to be the GM of the Seattle Mariners and not past transactions made by the Mariners.  Would a lot of people jump at the chance to be a major league GM? You bet. There are only 30 of those jobs in the world. But within those jobs, being the Seattle Mariners GM has to be one to the toughest in the league. While we enjoy a nice city and a beautiful ballpark, all be it one that hitters hate, it’s just difficult to get players to sign with the Mariners. I remember years ago when Hugh Millen said that Seattle just isn’t high on the list of young athletes to sign with. There are more exciting cities out there for these players to go to, he said. And I believe that. Seattle is tucked away up in the NW corner of the country, making travel the most of any major league team. And as we are all painfully aware of, we have been a losing franchise, save for a couple of playoff appearances. The ballpark has been a hindrance in trying to sign free agent hitters. I tend to believe the players that have actually played at Safeco and an overwhelming majority have said they do not like to hit here. Believe that or not but it’s the truth. Hopefully the new dimensions of the ballpark with help in this regard.   

Now, can we get good free agents to play in Seattle? Sure you can. I am just saying it is very difficult. Pat Gillick had great success signing FA’s which helped tremendously with our most successful run as a franchise from 2001-2003. Gillick by the way still lives in the Seattle area and has stated he would be interested in becoming the President of a Major League team. Gillick and Zduriencik would form a great team. But do we take advantage that? No, we prefer to keep a guy that has been just receiving a paycheck for like 25 years in our organization. In addition, can you imagine if someone like Bill Bavasi was our GM when Griffey pouted his way out of town the first time? We would have gotten a AA second baseman in the deal if he was in charge. Thank god we had Gillick at that time.

Anyway, back to GM Jack. I think this is the first year that it’s all on Zduriencik to make the Mariners a winner again. In addition to the inherited disadvantages of being the GM in Seattle, he had been hand cuffed with the wasted 18 million a year contract for our singles hitting Right Fielder the last 4 years. Not only did he take up a power position but he took up a bulk of our payroll. Now both are available for Jack to use.
GM Jack said he does have some payroll flexibility for free agents but also talked up the younger players on the team and in our organization. Basically saying he is looking aggressively at the free agent market but also hedging his bets just in case he doesn’t make a big splash. But he has to talk like that because it is difficult to get players to sign here. People say, why we don’t sign Nick Swisher and Zack Greinke. Well, it doesn’t work like that, especially in Seattle. I know people don’t like to hear that excuse but unfortunately it’s not an excuse, it’s a fact. I believe GM Z will do all he can to sign an impactful free agent this winter but “at the end of the day” to take one of Jacks favorite quotes, the player has to want to come to Seattle.  

I have been a Mariners fan since they started and I too get frustrated with our team and the organization just like the next guy but I try and put myself in the GM’s shoes and be open minded about what he is trying to do and more importantly what he is “able” to do. Now with that said, it is time for GM Jack to earn his money. Let’s hope he can get something done to make us proud and excited for Mariners baseball again!         

Article By:

Cecil
Cecil's Corner   

Friday, November 16, 2012

Our continued look at the Mariners position by position. Today: Shortstop


Shortstop:

I am looking forward to writing this post because as a former mediocre college Shortstop I have a passion for the position. But at the same time I don’t regard the position as a top priority when building a major league team. 

Many people say that Shortstop is one of the most difficult positions to fill. Well, I both agree and disagree.  Yes, finding a great SS is very difficult. There are very few Alex Rodríguez type SS’s out there. And if you have one, then you thank your lucky stars because they only come around perhaps every 25 years or so. But finding a decent SS is not that difficult. There are a lot of guys out there that can field the position well and according to many people that is the most important thing for a SS to do. I’m sure you have heard of the saying, “If you shake a tree a 1000 gloves fall out but only 1 bat”. Well that is the theory here. You can get away with a light hitting Short Stop but you can’t get by with light hitters in more traditional power positions as we have witnessed for the last 12 years in Right Field.  

This brings us to Brendan Ryan. He has solicited a great deal of debate amongst Mariner fans this year. I have never seen a #9 hitter garner so much attention. Let’s go over a few of the facts. First, he is cheap, only costing about 1.7M this year and probably around 2.5-3M next year thru arbitration. Second, he is one of the best if not the best fielding SS in baseball. Third, he can’t hit well, which is why he bats 9th.  That's not bad for the cost and contribution he makes defensively.

The problem this year was not Brendan Ryan. If you are relying on your #9 hitter to be a major contributor offensively then you have more problems than you think. Yes, it would have been nice if he could have hit at least .250, which he is capable of, but he basically played to his ability and for a cheap price. No, the problem this year was the disappointing seasons from the hitters that we were relying on to hit in the middle of our lineup like Justin Smoak, Dustin Ackley and Mike Carp etc. If these guys would have hit anywhere near what they are capable of the Mariners would have won a lot more games.

So when it comes to pointing fingers as to why the Mariners failed so badly offensively this year let’s at least point them at the correct players. In my opinion, we should sign Ryan to a one year deal and hope that someone can develop in the minors this year that will be ready to take over at Shortstop after next year. If not, then I wouldn’t be opposed to signing Ryan again, at the right price. In my opinion when a Shortstop's salary gets too high, you get rid of them and find another good fielding SS that doesn't cost too much, unless again if you have a Tulowitzki type player.      

While we are on the subject of Shortstops I would like to touch a little on how I would build a team. Most people say you build up the middle, meaning Catcher, ShortStop, Second Base and Center Field.  I look at it a little differently. I think you build a stronger team from the outside in. Meaning First Base, Third Base, Left Field and Right Field. I can find decent players to fill the positions up the middle at reasonable prices more easily than I can fill the coveted and more important power positions. Again, if a Ken Griffey Jr. or a Robinson Cano fall your way, then again, thank your lucky stars and you can get by with a David Bell at Third Base. But there aren’t too many lucky stars out there so you better build your team correctly and allocate your money accordingly.

Power hitters and front of the rotation pitchers are the most difficult things to find in baseball. Therefore, those are the positions you should be paying big money for. There is a reason why power hitters and ace pitchers get big money and not slap hitting Right Fielders (Ichiro) or weak hitting short Stops (Ryan).    

Article By:

Cecil
Cecil's Corner

Tuesday, November 13, 2012

About Dustin Ackley's hitting


Ackley has hit his whole life and at every level so it’s difficult to change someone’s hitting style that has had the success Ackley has had. Well, it’s time to change his hitting style. Any player that has ever played in the major leagues will tell you that it’s a game of adjustments, especially for a hitter. Ackley has a nice level swing, which keeps his bat through the strike zone for a long time which allows him to stay on pitches. When he barrels the ball up he hits it hard and with surprising power. With that being said, he has some real problems he needs to fix.

Despite his level swing, he strikes out way too much, especially for a top of the lineup hitter. He swings at balls outside the strike zone, which is a result of poor pitch recognition and technique. When he does decide to swing, he lunges forward, this in turn bends his front leg, which in turn moves his head up to a foot towards the pitcher. Wade Boggs is the only hitter I can remember that had been a good hitter with this style of “broken leg” hitting.

Ackley needs to learn to hit with a more firm front leg and to the opposite way. He has turned into basically a pull hitter. He doesn't hit for enough power to be a dead pull hitter and if he wants to remain at the top of the batting order he needs to make these adjustments. Let’s hope he does because the Mariners need all the offense they can get. Not only that, but he has Nick Franklin along with a host of other middle infielders in the Mariner system waiting for a chance at the major league level. 

Here is an example of Ackley's "broken front leg" swing:



Here is an example of Chase Utley's (Phillies) "firm front leg" swing, which is what Ackley needs to look like:



Article by:

Cecil

Cecil's Corner

Monday, November 5, 2012

Our continued look at the Mariners position by position. Today: Second Base


Second Base:

Before I continue my off season analysis of the Mariners I would like to touch on a few things. We all know this is a very important offseason for Jack Z. not only because it’s about time the Mariners put a good team on the field but it’s also the last year of Z’s contract. Therefore, nobody on this team is off limits when it comes to possible trades. The only exception I see is Felix Hernandez. I don’t see ownership signing off on a trade of its franchise player.

Ok, on to second base. I was surprised to see that Dustin Ackley was in the running for the Gold Glove Award. I don’t know if this is a reflection of the lack of good defensive second baseman in the American League or Ackley’s ability to play second base. I know there are many sabermetric calculations that measure a player’s ability and Ackley registered high on some of these calculations. But when I apply the eye test I see a very mechanical and not too athletic second baseman. But I also see a guy who made most of the routine plays, although very few spectacular plays and turned the double play well. That’s pretty good for a guy who has only been playing second base for a couple years.

Now when I compare him to how Kyle Seager plays second base I see two different players. Seager is much more fluid, natural, looks more comfortable and turns the double play better. Yes I know Seager has played second base more in his life than Ackley but for this post I am merely comparing the two.
If I could include Ackley in a package to get a third baseman or an outfield power bat I would. I would prefer Seager playing second and another legitimate player at third.

But as it stands now I think Ackley will be our second baseman and Seager our third baseman next year. We do however have a multitude of middle infielders on their way so that is one more reason to not rule out a trade. One last thing on Ackley. I would not move him to the outfield. He does not hit for enough power. His value is at second base and Jack Z. was smart enough to know this from the beginning. Besides we have had enough outfielders with no power over the years, most notably a certain right fielder we had for the last 12 years.       


Article By:

Cecil
Cecil's Corner

Friday, October 26, 2012

Our continued look at the Mariners position by position. Today: 
First Base

Justin Smoak:
By now we all know about how Smoak changed his swing and had a very good September. He needed to shorten his swing and he did just that. One way he did it was by using a shorter leg kick. What I mean by that is he lifted and put his front foot on the ground faster than before. Even to the point of not taking a stride at all. The other way he shortened his swing is by now holding onto the bat with both hands on his follow through. Before, he would let go of the bat with one hand on the follow through.

I was one of the many who thought Smoak was never going to make it and I had seen enough. Even from his days in the minor leagues there were whispers of a hole in his swing that may never be fixed. Let’s hope he has finally fixed that hole in his swing. I have to admit that I am cautiously dinking the Kool-Aid on Smoak. I would still trade him if I think it would help the team but I am also ready to give him another chance next spring to prove he has finally turned the corner with his hitting.


Jesus Montero:

I would like to start off by saying I thought Montero had a pretty good first year all things considered. Did he do as much as I thought he was going to do? No. But if you take a step back and consider he was a 22 year old rookie trying to find his way in the big leagues at the same time trying to learn the catching position. He did ok. This is a difficult position in of itself.
But in my opinion, his catching days should be over now. With Zunino set to arrive sometimes next year, it is a waste of Montero’s time and his development using him behind the plate. The Mariners are going to sign another catcher this offseason anyway. It’s time to get a first baseman’s glove on him now and have him come to spring training ready to compete with Smoak at first base. The only way I would use him at catcher again would be in emergency situations or on the occasions there are double moves late in games.
 
As a hitter this year Montero struggled mightily against breaking pitches away especially sliders. He must improve his pitch recognition if he is to become the hitter we all hope he will become.
In my opinion I think Montero needs to alter his swing like Smoak did. But with one big difference. Instead of holding onto the bat with two hands on the follow through I think Montero needs to let go with one hand on his follow through. I always thought Montero had a funky swing that isn’t really a power stroke. He is kind of a flicker with his bat as he makes contact and follows through. He had way too many weak ground balls in the infield and lazy fly balls. I realize a lot of that was due to rolling over on outside sliders but I think too he needs to generate more back spin on the ball. Back spin makes the ball go farther.  One way to get back spin is by letting go of the bat with one hand which keeps you down through the ball more. Thus generating more back spin on the ball. I have seen Montero use this technique on inside pitches before; even hitting a home run which got me thinking he should use this stroke all the time. As far as I can see, Montero does not have a long swing. He doesn’t need to shorten it; he just needs to refine it.

One last thing on Montero. I think he needs to have much more focus at the plate. Too many times this year I saw him in the on deck circle or walking up to the plate gesturing or looking towards the opponents’ dugout. And it wasn’t with an “I am going to crush this pitcher” look. It was more of a “How are you guys doing” look. He needs more focus and that starts with when he is on deck. And especially when he is in the batter’s Box.   

So, in short I think the Mariners should take a page out of Pete Carroll’s book and have both Smoak and Montero compete for the first base job next spring.  If they both do well at first then you have a good first base/DH combo. Not to mention a potential trade opportunity. If one has a bad spring you can send him down to AAA. So either way you are covered. Not to mention Ackley’s availability late in games in case of pinch hitting or defensive replacements.  
          


Wednesday, October 24, 2012

With the offseason now under way for the Seattle Mariners I would like to go over the roster, position by position and what I think they should do at each position starting with catcher.

John Jaso:

I think we can all agree that Jaso had a very nice season even if it was unexpected. He came to the Mariners in a nondescript trade with the Tampa Bay Rays for Josh Lueke. I thought it was a nice trade at the time because we needed a backup catcher and I have always felt the backup catcher should be a left handed hitter if the starter bats right. Tom Lampkin had a 15 year career as a left handed hitting backup catcher despite being just a career .235 hitter with average defensive skills.

Jaso was by far our most clutch hitter and did a decent job behind the plate. I was surprised it took the Mariners so long to figure out that he was the best catcher for Felix Hernandez because Olivo and Montero had such a difficult time catching Felix’s pitches because they moved so much. I also think Jaso called a good game for the pitching staff as a whole. With that being said though, I think Jaso is best suited as platoon catcher. I think the Mariners gave Jaso just about the right amount of at bats to take advantage of his skill set but with one caveat. With Olivo’s struggles at the plate and Montero getting the bulk of his at bats as DH, It can be reasonably argued that Jaso should have gotten even more at bats. But in an ideal situation, with a legitimate starting catcher (let’s hope Mike Zunino fits that bill soon)  Jaso is best suited as a backup catcher and pinch hitter.

I think the Mariners will and should resign Jaso. Even to a multiyear contract because he still will be a valuable part of the Mariners even after Zunino ultimately takes over as the starting catcher. But for now he should be the main catcher but in a platoon type of situation.


Jesus Montero:

For a 22 year old in his first major league season trying to catch and hit in the middle of a line up, I think Montero did a respectable job.  But if it were up to me that job would be done for him. Unless the Mariners already know he can’t play first then his catching days should be over. I would move him to first base immediately and have him play some winter ball. More on Montero in the upcoming first base breakdown.

Free Agent Catcher:

I would sign the best defensive free agent catcher I could find at a reasonable price. I really believe Zunino will be up sometime next year so we only need a stop gap at catcher. With Jaso and Montero, if they choose to keep him at catcher are below average catchers so a good defensive catcher would be beneficial.    





Wednesday, October 10, 2012

Cecil’s Corner – Seattle Mariners

Welcome to a new Seattle Mariners blog called Cecil’s Corner- Seattle Mariners.  I am part old school and part new school when it comes to evaluating players and building teams. I am the first one to admit I am no expert on all the sabermetric calculations but I am aware of many of them. Thus I do believe in using both the scouting eye and sabermetrics when evaluating baseball players. With that said, I invite everyone to join me in discussing Seattle Mariners baseball. 
With the playoffs in full swing, I would like to start this blog by giving my opinion on the basic philosophy on how to build a contending baseball team. This can be difficult because I think a successful team during the regular season may not necessarily equate to playoff success. The best example of this is the 2001 Seattle Mariners. While we all enjoyed that record tying season, I remember cautioning my friends that those Mariners were not going to go far in the playoffs. Everyone thought I was crazy! Throughout that year I frequently used the phrase “The Mariners are built for the marathon but not the sprint” What I meant by that was that they had a great regular season roster but not a strong playoff roster. In my opinion a strong playoff roster consist of 2 strong front of the rotation starting pitchers, a strong bullpen and a couple hot hitters who pop some home runs in the playoffs.
The 2001 Mariners had an effective regular season starting pitching staff led by Freddy Garcia and Jamie Moyer but not the 2 horses you need to make a deep run in the playoffs. They did however have a strong bullpen and some power (although many teams had power in the steroid era). I believe you win with pitching and power in the playoffs. The pitching is just too good to play small ball and try and string together 4 or 5 hits in a row to score runs. So many playoff games are won with a 2 or 3 run home run or a couple home runs hit throughout the game. You have to take advantage of the 2 or 3 mistakes that a pitcher will make during a playoff game. If you miss those chances the odds are you are going to lose the game.   
In contrast, the 2001 Arizona Diamond Backs had Randy Johnson and Curt Schilling at the front of their rotation, a good bullpen and timely big hits. The 2004 Red Sox had Pedro Martinez and Curt Schilling leading their staff, a good bullpen and power hitters. The 2010 Giants had a staff lead by Tim Lincicum and Matt Cain, a good bullpen and timely homeruns by late season pickups Pat Burrell and Cody Ross among others. Those are some examples of the kind of horses you need at the front of your rotation to win in the playoffs. I am sure there are examples of teams over the last 100 years that had won a world series another way but again this is just my opinion.
Which leads me to how the Mariners have been constructed the last many years and what they should do moving forward which will be discussed in upcoming posts.